Age-period-cohort modelling of type 1 diabetes incidence rates among children included in the EURODIAB 25-year follow-up study.

AIMS: Specific patterns in incidence may reveal environmental explanations for type 1 diabetes incidence. We aimed to study type 1 diabetes incidence in European childhood populations to assess whether an increase could be attributed to either period or cohort effects. METHODS: Nineteen EURODIAB centres provided single year incidence data for ages 0-14 in the 25-year period 1989-2013. Case counts and person years were classified by age, period and cohort (APC) in 1-year classes. APC Poisson regression models of rates were fitted using restricted cubic splines for age, period and cohort per centre and sex. Joint models were fitted for all centres and sexes, to find a parsimonious model. RESULTS: A total of 57,487 cases were included. In ten and seven of the 19 centres the APC models showed evidence of nonlinear cohort effects or period effects, respectively, in one or both sexes and indications of sex-specific age effects. Models showed a positive linear increase ranging from approximately 0.6 to 6.6%/year. Centres with low incidence rates showed the highest overall increase. A final joint model showed incidence peak at age 11.6 and 12.6 for girls and boys, respectively, and the rate-ratio was according to sex below 1 in ages 5-12. CONCLUSION: There was reasonable evidence for similar age-specific type 1 diabetes incidence rates across the EURODIAB population and peaks at a younger age for girls than boys. Cohort effects showed nonlinearity but varied between centres and the model did not contribute convincingly to identification of environmental causes of the increase.

Islet autoantibody profiles associated with higher diabetes risk in Lithuanian compared with English schoolchildren.

During a 15-year period, the incidence of type 1 diabetes has doubled in Lithuania, while increasing by a third in England; however, England still has a higher incidence. Analysis of sera collected from non-diabetic schoolchildren from Lithuania and England more than 20 years ago showed a similar number of multiple autoantibody-positive schoolchildren between the populations, but a higher prevalence of islet antigen-2 autoantibodies (IA-2A) in English schoolchildren. We aimed to use recently developed, more specific islet autoantibody tests to characterize differences in humoral autoimmunity between these two general population cohorts in greater detail. Samples from 88 Lithuanian and 133 English schoolchildren previously found islet autoantibody-positive were selected for measurement of additional islet autoantibodies by radioimmunoassay. Samples were tested for autoantibodies to zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8A), GAD (96-585), the protein tyrosine phosphatase region of islet antigen-2 (PTPA) and the related IA-2ßA, while autoantibodies to IA-2A were reassayed using the current harmonized method. IA-2-related autoantibodies PTPA (0·13 versus 0·45%, P = 0·027) and IA-2ßA (0 versus 0·35%, P < 0·001), but not IA-2A measured using the harmonized method, were less common in Lithuanian compared to English schoolchildren. Lithuanian schoolchildren who were islet autoantibody-positive were positive for fewer biochemical autoantibodies compared with English schoolchildren (P = 0·043). Background rates of islet autoimmunity in childhood differ subtly between countries, which have different incidences of type 1 diabetes. The optimal screening strategy (age and combination of markers) for detection of islet autoimmunity may vary between countries, dependent upon the pattern of autoantibodies found in the general population.

Relationship between the incidence of type 1 diabetes and maternal enterovirus antibodies: time trends and geographical variation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We have previously observed an inverse correlation between the incidence of type 1 diabetes and enterovirus infections in the background population. The aim of this study was to analyse whether maternal enterovirus antibody status, which reflects both the frequency of enterovirus infections and the protection conferred by the mother on the offspring, also correlates with the incidence of type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Maternal enterovirus antibodies were analysed from serum samples taken from pregnant women between 1983 and 2001 in Finland and Sweden using enzyme immunoassay and neutralisation assays. Comparable samples were also taken between 1999 and 2001 in countries with a lower incidence of diabetes (Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Lithuania, Russia). RESULTS: A clear decrease was observed in maternal enterovirus antibody levels over the past 20 years (p<0.0001). The frequency of enterovirus antibodies was higher in countries with a low or intermediate incidence of type 1 diabetes compared with high-incidence countries (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These findings are in line with our previous observations supporting the hypothesis that a low frequency of enterovirus infection in the background population increases the susceptibility of young children to the diabetogenic effect of enteroviruses.

A comparison of the prevalence of islet autoantibodies in children from two countries with differing incidence of diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To examine the prevalence of sub-: clinical islet autoimmunity in children from two countries with a twofold to threefold difference in incidence of childhood Type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus. METHODS: Sera were collected from 2,860 English and 3,053 Lithuanian non-diabetic schoolchildren according to the same protocol. Occult diabetes was excluded by blood glucose measurement. Antibodies to GAD and the protein tyrosine phosphatase IA-2 were measured with standardised radiobinding assays in a single laboratory. Islet cell antibodies and insulin autoantibodies were additionally measured in all samples with GAD and/or IA-2 antibody levels above the 97.5th centile of the English schoolchildren. RESULTS: Of Lithuanian schoolchildren 2.7 % had GAD antibodies above the 97.5th centile of the English schoolchildren but only 0.2 % had antibodies to IA-2 above this threshold (p < 0.001). Islet cell and/ or insulin autoantibodies above the 97.5th centile were found in 22 Lithuanian and 16 English schoolchildren and the overall prevalence of two or more antibodies on or above the 97.5th centile was similar [0.7 % (0.5-1.1) vs 0.6 % (0.4-1.0)] in the two cohorts. CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: The prevalence of multiple antibody markers was similar in the cohorts from the two populations, despite the two to three-fold difference in incidence of diabetes. The unexpectedly high prevalence of subclinical islet autoimmunity suggests that the incidence of diabetes in Lithuania is likely to increase in the near future.